Alzheimer’s Disease | Pharmacor | G7 | 2014

Last Updated 1 October 2014
The market for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pharmacotherapies continues to offer compelling commercial opportunities driven by considerable unmet need. The AD population is poised to grow rapidly over the next ten years as the baby boomer generation ages, meaningfully increasing the treatable patient pool. Moreover, treatment options for AD remain limited to four approved therapies, all of which are symptomatic and offer only modest efficacy of limited duration. Two critical unmet needs are routinely cited by interviewed experts: disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) that are capable of slowing disease progression (especially needed for patients with early AD) and improved symptomatic therapies (which will be welcomed for all patients). Despite high pipeline attrition, the late-stage pipeline in AD remains full and diverse, comprising a range of promising symptomatic and disease-modifying candidates. We forecast the launch of three potential DMTs targeting the amyloid cascade—Eli Lilly’s solanezumab, Roche/Chugai/MorphoSys’s gantenerumab, and Merck’s MK-8931—which will dramatically expand the AD market, despite reaching relatively few patients. Additionally, we forecast the launch of a novel symptomatic alternative: Lundbeck/Otsuka’s Lu-AE58054. However, owing to as-yet uncertain clinical benefits for any emerging candidates, we expect investigational products will only partially fulfill the need for therapeutic advances, leaving ample room for others to enjoy commercial success.

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