The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the fundamental operations of all healthcare stakeholders. The ability to predict the outcomes of the pandemic and the speed of recovery for medtech markets has been challenged by the lack of historical data. This article is an executive summary of a new report from Clarivate assessing how COVID-19 vaccine rollouts will impact recovery for key markets. Read the full report here.
The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the fundamental operations of all healthcare stakeholders, whether due to lockdowns, procedure deferrals, clinical trial pauses and/or merger and acquisition (M&A) changes. One of the most significant challenges has been that stakeholders do not have historical data that would allow them to better understand how the world will emerge from this crisis and how recovery will unfold for their businesses. We expect that the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines globally will contribute to determining how healthcare markets will recover in 2021 and beyond.
It won’t be surprising that our research confirmed the COVID-19 pandemic’s negative impact on healthcare patient volumes, procedure utilization and different sites of service, as the population locked down and avoided high-risk settings such as healthcare facilities. We also expected to learn that the effect varied by procedure urgency, with elective procedures faring the worst. Building upon these findings, our analysis shows which procedure types and sites are most likely to recover as more of the population is vaccinated, allowing for increased capacity at healthcare settings and enabling patients to feel comfortable presenting for elective and deferrable procedures.
Figure 1. COVID-19 impact on procedure capacity utilization, United States
Source: COVID-19 Dashboard, Clarivate.
Vaccination rollout represents a critical component in the recovery of medtech markets, specifically for healthcare capacity, patient mobility and the full restoration of global manufacturing operations and supply chains. To understand the effect of various vaccination campaigns, we need to understand the rollout by region and country. Therefore, Clarivate analysts developed a vaccination forecast, based on Clarivate data and expertise as well as publicly available data, to support market forecasting.
Healthcare and medtech recovery
The speed at which the healthcare and medtech industries will recover depends on both short-term factors — such as COVID-19 vaccine availability and rollout, public health measures and facility capacity — and long-term factors, including consolidation and the growing significance of non-hospital settings.
To understand the effect of various vaccination campaigns, we need to understand the rollout by region and country. Clarivate analysts developed a vaccination forecast to support market forecasting.
Using data for greater insight
Because of the lack of long-term data and the ever-changing situation, it can be challenging to predict the continuing impact on the healthcare industry. Clarivate analysts utilize real-world data and various proprietary sources to develop strong forecasts and generate insights regarding short and long-term outcomes and continue to monitor the landscape and provide iterative modeling improvements to capture real word circumstances.
Based on what we know at the moment, returning healthcare operational efficiency, particularly operating room time, to pre-pandemic levels will require a substantial rate of immunization in the population. Therefore, we expect that capacity utilization in certain regions and sites of service may still take quite some time to return to 100%.
Download the full report COVID-19 vaccine availability and medtech impact for more findings on:
- 2020 impact and recovery insights
- Current vaccine development status and the various distinctions between different vaccines
- How we believe the vaccination campaigns will roll out globally and how this influences forecasting
- Impact of vaccination availability on health care markets and sectors
Analysis and data sources
Forecasts and insights provided in this blog series were developed by Clarivate analysts using a diversity of proprietary sources:
- Clarivate Real World Data™ provides access to real word data, such as patient volumes by procedure group and site of service.
- Market Tracking: Medical Supply Distribution data enables manufacturers to identify opportunities and risks by confidently assessing market share based on real-time insights.
- Medtech Insights™ provides comprehensive data forecasts and analysis for global and regional medical device markets.
- Market Assessment Epidemiology™ provides solutions to understand the complete disease landscape and size global markets with real world data.