Web of Science Predicts 2016 Nobel Prize Winners

Detection of Gravitational Waves Generated from Black Holes and Cancer Immunotherapy Research among Laureate-Worthy Discoveries

Philadelphia, PA, September 21, 2016 – The Intellectual Property and Science business of Thomson Reuters, the world’s leader in intelligent information for businesses and professionals, today announced its 2016 Citation Laureates.

The annual Citation Laureates study has predicted 39 Nobel Prize winners since 2002. The study mines scientific research citations within the Web of ScienceTM—the premier global search and discovery platform for the sciences, social sciences and arts and humanities—to identify the most influential researchers in chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine, and economics who are likely winners of the Nobel Prize in current or future years.

This year’s noteworthy nominees include physicists Ronald W.P. Drever, Kip S.Thorne and Rainer Weiss for their development of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) which made possible the detection of gravitational waves from coalescing black holes. In physiology or medicine, James P. Allison, Jeffrey A. Bluestone and Craig B. Thompson explained how CD28 and CTLA-4 are regulators of T-cell activation, while Gordon J. Freeman, Tasuku Honjo and Arlene H. Sharpe elucidated the function of programmed cell death-1. The discoveries of both groups have advanced cancer chemotherapy. In economics, Olivier J. Blanchard is recognized for valuable contributions to macroeconomics, including determinants of economic fluctuations and employment.

The 2016 Thomson Reuters Web of Science Citation Laureates:


James P. Allison
Professor and Chair, Department of Immunology, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas
Houston, TX USA

Jeffrey A. Bluestone
A.W. and Mary Margaret Clausen Distinguished Professor of Metabolism and Endocrinology, University of California San Francisco Medical School
San Francisco, CA USA

Craig B. Thompson
President and CEO, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
New York, NY USA

 For explaining how CD28 and CTLA-4 are regulators of T cell activation, modulating immune response

Gordon J. Freeman
Professor, Department of Medical Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Boston, MA USA

Tasuku Honjo
Visiting Professor, Kyoto University
Kyoto, JAPAN

 Arlene H. Sharpe
George Fabyan Professor of Comparative Pathology, Department of Microbiology and Immunobiology, Harvard Medical School and Member, Department of Pathology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital
Boston, MA USA

 For elucidating programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) and its pathway, which has advanced cancer immunotherapy”

Michael N. Hall
Professor Biozentrum, University of Basel

David M. Sabatini
Whitehead Institute, Member; Professor of Biology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute; Member, Koch Institute for Integrative Research; Senior Associate Member, Broad Institute.
Cambridge, MA USA

Stuart L. Schreiber
Director of Chemical Biology, Broad Institute, Morris Loeb Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Harvard University; Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute
Cambridge, MA USA

For discoveries of the growth regulator Target of Rapamycin (TOR) and the mechanistic Target of Rapamycin (mTOR)


Marvin L. Cohen
University Professor, Department of Physics, University of California Berkeley; Senior Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Berkeley, CA USA

 For theoretical studies of solid materials, prediction of their properties, and especially for the empirical pseudopotential method

Ronald W.P. Drever
Professor of Physics Emeritus, California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA USA

Kip S. Thorne
Feynman Professor of Theoretical Physics Emeritus, California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA USA

 Rainer Weiss
Professor of Physics Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA USA

 For the development of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) that made possible the detection of gravitational waves

Celso Grebogi
Sixth Century Chair in Nonlinear and Complex Systems, School of Natural and Computing Sciences, University of Aberdeen
Aberdeen, SCOTLAND

 Edward Ott
Distinguished University Professor, Yuen Sang and Yuen Kit So Professor, Department of Physics, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Institute for Research in Electronics and Applied Physics, University of Maryland
College Park, MD USA

 James A. Yorke
Distinguished University Research Professor of Mathematics and Physics, Institute for Physical Sciences and Technology, University of Maryland
College Park, MD USA

For their description of control theory of chaotic systems, the OGY method


George M. Church
Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics, Harvard Medical School
Boston, MA USA

Feng Zhang
W. M. Keck Career Development Professor of Biomedical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Core Member, Broad Institute
Cambridge, MA USA

For application of CRISPR-cas9 gene editing in mouse and human cells

Dennis Lo Yuk-Ming
Li Ka Shing Professor of Medicine and of Chemical Pathology, and Director of the Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong, CHINA

 For detecting cell-free fetal DNA in maternal plasma, a revolution in noninvasive prenatal testing

Hiroshi Maeda
Professor, Institute of Drug Delivery Science, Sojo University, and Professor Emeritus, Kumamoto University School of Medicine
Kumamoto, JAPAN

 Yasuhiro Matsumura
Director, Division of Developmental Therapeutics, Exploratory Oncology Research and Clinical Trial Center, National Cancer Center
Tokyo, JAPAN

For discovering the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect of macromolecular drugs, a key finding for cancer therapeutics


Olivier J. Blanchard
C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. USA and Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics Emeritus, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, MA USA

For contributions to macroeconomics, including determinants of economic fluctuations and employment

Edward P. Lazear
Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, and Jack Steele Parker Professor of Human Resources, Management and Economics, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Stanford, CA USA

 For his development of the distinctive field of personnel economics

Marc J. Melitz
David A. Wells Professor of Political Economy, Department of Economics, Harvard University
Cambridge, MA USA

 For pioneering descriptions of firm heterogeneity and international trade

“Highly-cited papers turn out to be one of the most reliable indicators of world-class research, and provide a glimpse at what research stands the best chance at being recognized with a Nobel Prize,” said Jessica Turner, global head of government and academia, Intellectual Property and Science, Thomson Reuters. “We applaud our 2016 Citation Laureates for their groundbreaking discoveries, and wish them the best this Nobel season and in the future.”

For the second consecutive year, science enthusiasts are invited to weigh-in with their own Nobel Prize predictions by participating in the “People’s Choice” survey for Nobel Prizes, drawn from the Citation Laureates in contention for the Nobel. Individuals who are interested in taking part can visit StateOfInnovation.com to make their picks.

For detailed information on the methodology of this study, the Citation Laureates, and their fields of research and institutional affiliations, visit StateOfInnovation.com. Follow @TR_ScienceWatch and #CitationLaureate on Twitter for up-to-the-minute news on the predictions and deeper insight into their fields of research.

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