Alzheimer’s Disease | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2017

The market for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pharmacotherapies represents an enormous commercial opportunity driven by considerable unmet need and looming societal burden. The AD population is poised to grow rapidly over the next ten years as the baby boomer generation ages, simultaneously increasing the treatable patient pool and straining healthcare resources. Moreover, approved treatments today comprise a handful of symptomatic therapies that offer only modest efficacy of limited duration. Two critical unmet needs in AD treatment remain: the development of bona fide disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) that are capable of slowing disease progression, and the launch of improved symptomatic adjuncts, including those for behavioral deficits. Despite a perennially high rate of attrition, the late-phase pipeline in AD remains full and diverse, comprising a range of promising symptomatic and disease-modifying candidates. At this time, we forecast the launch of four potential DMTs targeting the amyloid cascade— Roche/Genentech/AC Immune’s crenezumab, Biogen/Neurimmune’s aducanumab, Biogen/Eisai’s elenbecestat, and Merck’s verubecestat—which will dramatically expand the AD market. Additionally, we forecast the launch of two behavioral therapies, Lundbeck/Otsuka’s Rexulti and Avanir’s AVP-786 for the treatment of agitation associated with AD. However, owing to as-yet uncertain clinical benefits for any emerging candidates, and lingering questions about the clinical efficacy, safety, and fundamental launch prospects of putative DMTs, we expect investigational products will only partially fulfill the need for therapeutic advances should they launch, leaving ample room for superior alternatives.


  • How large is the treatable AD population and how will diagnosis/drug treatment rates change over time? What will the impact of DMTs be on diagnosis/drug treatment, and in which populations?
  •  What pipeline products are the most promising, and what sales/uptake could they secure in AD? What is the forecast for emerging DMTs such as Biogen’s aducanumab or agents to treat agitation in AD such as Lundbeck/Otsuka’s Rexulti (brexpiprazole)?
  •  What are the drivers and constraints in the AD market, and how might those change over the forecast period as premium-priced agents enter the market?

Disease Landscape & Forecast: Comprehensive market intelligence providing world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.dd

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