Pancreatic Cancer – Landscape & Forecast – Disease Landscape & Forecast
Pancreatic cancer is a notoriously aggressive and hard-to-treat malignancy; the five-year survival rate is around 10%. Treatment options for pancreatic cancer are limited to surgery, radiation, and chemotherapies; thus, demand is high for safer, more-efficacious drugs. FOLFIRINOX and Bristol Myers Squibb’s Abraxane with gemcitabine therapy are cornerstone treatments in the first line. While Merrimack’s Onivyde in combination with 5-FU plus leucovorin has carved out a niche in the second-line setting for patients who failed prior gemcitabine-based therapy; Keytruda is a recommended treatment option in the second line for pancreatic cancer patients with MSI-H or dMMR tumors. However, these therapies offer only modest survival benefits (overall survival is less than one year). AstraZeneca / Merck’s Lynparza is gaining traction as a targeted maintenance therapy for germline BRCA mutations. Although current treatment is dominated by chemotherapies, the pancreatic cancer market is expected to benefit from targeted therapies, mainly kinase inhibitors (Masiviera), monoclonal antibodies (pamrevlumab), biomarker-driven therapies, and launches of novel agents with new mechanisms of action, which will additionally boost market growth over the 2020-2030 forecast period.
Questions answered:
- How large are the clinically and commercially relevant pancreatic adenocarcinoma and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (PNET) drug-treatable populations, and how will drug-treatment rates change over the 2020-2030 forecast period?
- What is the current treatment algorithm for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and PNETs in the major markets? What are interviewed experts’ views on current and emerging late-phase therapies?
- Which are the most promising emerging therapies in the late-phase pipeline? What uptake and patient shares can late-phase pipeline agents currently in development for pancreatic cancer expect to secure?
- What are the key drivers and constraints in the pancreatic cancer market, and how will it change in the major markets over the 10-year forecast period?
Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.
Scope:
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 19 interviews with experts and country-specific surveys with medical oncologists (~30 per country) who treat pancreatic cancer and PNETs.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed and recurrent incidence of renal cell carcinoma by country, segmented by drug-treatable and -treated population and lines of therapy.
Population segments in market forecast: Stage I/II, stage III, first-line, and second-line for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma and pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.
Emerging therapies: Phase I/II: 12 drugs; Phase III: 6 drugs.
Solution Enhancement
Disease Landscape & Forecast features continuous updates to provide timely insights and analyses as meaningful indication-specific news and events unfold.
Table of contents
- Pancreatic Cancer - Landscape & Forecast - Disease Landscape & Forecast
- Key findings
- Pancreatic cancer - key findings
- Key updates
- Q4 2022
- November 2022
- Q3 2022
- September 2022
- July 2022
- Q2 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- Q1 2022
- March 2022
- Q4 2022
- Market outlook
- Key findings
- Market share of drug classes for pancreatic cancer: 2020
- Market share of drug classes for pancreatic cancer: 2030
- Drug-treatable population share and major-market sales share in pancreatic cancer: 2020
- Drug-treatable population share and major-market sales share in pancreatic cancer: 2030
- Key current therapies in pancreatic cancer: population positioning
- Key emerging therapies in pancreatic cancer: population positioning
- Pancreatic cancer SWOT analysis
- Market drivers and constraints
- What factors are driving the market for pancreatic cancer?
- What factors are constraining the market for pancreatic cancer?
- Major-market sales of key therapies in the pancreatic cancer market: 2020-2030
- Major-market sales for pancreatic cancer, by region: 2020-2030
- Major-market sales for pancreatic cancer, by population segment: 2020-2030
- Segment-specific trends
- Major-market shares of drug classes for resectable (stage I-IIB) pancreatic cancer: 2020-2030
- Major-market shares of drug classes for locally advanced (stage III), pancreatic cancer: 2020-2030
- Major-market share of drug classes for locally advanced (stage III), PNETs: 2020-2030
- Patient-share dynamics of key treatments for locally advanced (stage III) pancreatic cancer in the United States: 2020-2030
- Patient-share dynamics of key treatments for locally advanced (stage III) PNETs in the United States: 2020-2030
- Key regimens' share of major-market sales for first-line metastatic pancreatic cancer: 2020 vs. 2030
- Key regimens' share of major-market sales for first-line metastatic PNETs: 2020 vs. 2030
- Patient-share dynamics of key treatments for metastatic first-line pancreatic cancer in the United States: 2020-2030
- Patient-share dynamics of key treatments for metastatic first-line PNETs in the United States: 2020-2030
- Key regimens' share of major-market sales for second-line metastatic pancreatic cancer: 2020 vs. 2030
- Key regimens' share of major-market sales for second-line metastatic PNETs: 2020 vs. 2030
- Patient-share dynamics of key treatments for metastatic second-line pancreatic cancer in the United States: 2020-2030
- Patient-share dynamics of key treatments for metastatic second-line PNETs in the United States: 2020-2030
- Key findings
- Forecast
- Market forecast assumptions - pancreatic cancer (2020-2030) - March 2022
- Market forecast dashboard
- Etiology and pathophysiology
- Disease overview
- Tumor invasion from the head of the pancreas into the small intestine
- Common metastatic sites in pancreatic cancer
- Disease pathophysiology
- Etiology
- Genetic risk factors for developing pancreatic cancer
- Nonmodifiable and modifiable risk factors for developing pancreatic cancer
- Disease pathophysiology of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Development of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Disease pathophysiology of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs)
- Staging and classification
- Tumor, node, metastasis status staging system for pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Tumor, node, metastasis status staging system for PNETs
- Stage grouping system for pancreatic cancer
- Grading system for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs)
- Key pathways and drug targets
- Signaling pathways implicated in the development of pancreatic cancer
- Disease overview
- Epidemiology
- Key findings
- Epidemiology populations
- Disease definition
- Methods
- Sources used for diagnosed incidence of pancreatic cancer
- Diagnosed incident cases of pancreatic cancer by subtype: 2020-2030
- Disease definition
- Methods
- Sources used for stage distribution of pancreatic cancer
- Diagnosed incident cases of pancreatic exocrine tumor by stage at diagnosis: 2020-2030
- Diagnosed incident cases of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors by stage at diagnosis: 2020-2030
- Disease definition
- Methods
- Sources used for recurrent incidence of pancreatic cancer
- Recurrent incident cases of pancreatic cancer: 2020-2030
- Pancreatic exocrine cancer patient flow
- Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors patient flow
- Drug-treatable cases of pancreatic cancer: 2020-2030
- Drug-treated cases of pancreatic cancer: 2020-2030
- Key findings
- Current treatment
- Key findings
- Treatment goals
- Key endpoints used in clinical trials for pancreatic cancer
- Key current therapies
- Overview
- Mechanism of action of key current drugs or drug classes used for pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Mechanism of action of key current drugs or drug classes used for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Current treatments used for pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Current treatments used for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Market events impacting the use of key current therapies in pancreatic cancer
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Abraxane for the treatment of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Ongoing clinical development of Abraxane
- Expert insight: Abraxane
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Onivyde for the treatment of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Ongoing clinical development of Onivyde
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Onivyde in the treatment of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Expert insight: Onivyde
- Ongoing clinical development of erlotinib
- Key ongoing clinical trials of erlotinib in the treatment of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Expert insight: erlotinib
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Keytruda for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Ongoing clinical development of Keytruda
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Keytruda in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Expert insight: Keytruda
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Lynparza for the treatment of pancreatic adenocarcinoma
- Ongoing clinical development of Lynparza
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Lynparza in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Expert insight: Lynparza
- Ongoing clinical development of Somatuline Autogel / Depot
- Expert insight: Somatuline Autogel / Depot
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Lutathera for the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Ongoing clinical development of Lutathera
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Lutathera in the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Expert insight: Lutathera
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Afinitor for the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Ongoing clinical development of Afinitor
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Afinitor in the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Expert insight: Afinitor
- Advantages and disadvantages of Sutent
- Expert insight: Sutent
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating Welireg for the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Ongoing clinical development of Welireg
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Welireg in the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors
- Expert insight: Welireg
- Medical practice
- Pancreatic cancer: resectable (stage I-IIB)
- Pancreatic cancer: unresectable (stage III) and metastatic (stage IV), first line
- Pancreatic cancer: metastatic, second line
- Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: resectable (stage I-II)
- Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: unresectable (stage III) and metastatic (stage IV), first line
- Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: metastatic, second line
- Patient characteristics influencing drug selection in pancreatic cancer
- Treatment decision tree for pancreatic adenocarcinoma: United States
- Treatment decision tree for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: United States
- Treatment decision tree for pancreatic adenocarcinoma: Europe
- Treatment decision tree for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: Europe
- Treatment decision tree for pancreatic adenocarcinoma: Japan
- Treatment decision tree for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: Japan
- Key findings
- Unmet need overview
- Current and future attainment of unmet needs in pancreatic cancer
- Top unmet needs in the treatment of pancreatic cancer: current and future attainment
- Expert insight on unmet needs in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Drug Pipeline
- Pipeline
- Regulatory Milestones
- Indication Comparison
- Emerging therapies
- Key findings
- Key emerging therapies
- Key therapies in development for pancreatic cancer
- Estimated market authorization dates of key emerging therapies for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Key results of select clinical trials investigating glufosfamide for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Key ongoing clinical trials of glufosfamide in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Analysis of the clinical development program for glufosfamide
- Expert insight: Glufosfamide
- Expectations for market authorization and sales opportunity for glufosfamide in pancreatic cancer
- Key results of select clinical trials investigating Masiviera for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Analysis of the clinical development program for Masiviera
- Expert insight: Masiviera
- Expectations for market authorization and sales opportunity of Masiviera in pancreatic cancer
- Key results of select clinical trials investigating Vaccell for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Vaccell in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Expert insight: Vaccell
- Expectations for market authorization and sales opportunity for Vaccell in pancreatic cancer
- Key results of select clinical trials investigating pamrevlumab for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Key ongoing clinical trials of pamrevlumab in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Analysis of the clinical development program for pamrevlumab
- Expert insight: pamrevlumab
- Expectations for market authorization and sales opportunity of pamrevlumab in pancreatic cancer
- Key ongoing clinical trials of NIS-793 in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Analysis of the clinical development program for NIS-793
- Expert insight: NIS-793
- Expectations for market authorization and sales opportunity of NIS-793 in pancreatic cancer
- Key results of select clinical trials investigating Nanoplatin for the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Analysis of the clinical development program for Nanoplatin
- Expert insight: use of Nanoplatin in the treatment of pancreatic cancer
- Expectations for market authorization and sales opportunity for Nanoplatin in pancreatic cancer
- Early-phase pipeline analysis
- Select compounds in early-phase development for pancreatic cancer
- Key findings
- Access & reimbursement
- Region-specific reimbursement practices
- Key market access considerations in pancreatic cancer: United States
- General reimbursement environment: United States
- Key market access considerations in pancreatic cancer: EU5
- General reimbursement environment: EU5
- Key market access considerations in pancreatic cancer: Japan
- General reimbursement environment: Japan
- Region-specific reimbursement practices
- Appendix
- Pancreatic cancer bibliography
- Key findings
Alexandre Vo Dupuy, M.Sc., Pharm.D., is a principal epidemiologist at Clarivate. Previously, he worked in the fields of consulting and real-world evidence and at a major pharmaceutical company. He obtained his doctor of pharmacy from Descartes University in Paris and his master’s degree in pharmacoepidemiology from the University of Bordeaux. He has worked in multiple therapy areas, with a focus on cancer epidemiology. He also codeveloped a scenario-based forecast for COVID-19.