Human Immunodeficiency Virus – Landscape & Forecast – Disease Landscape & Forecast
MARKET OUTLOOK
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapy market is dynamic and growing as many effective antiretroviral therapies (ARTs), such as Gilead’s Biktarvy, continue to launch, prompting safety and tolerability to become the key differentiating attributes between ART regimens. The rise of single-pill nuc-sparing and nuc-reduced regimens (e.g., ViiV’s Juluca and dolutegravir/lamivudine) with a reduced long-term risk of comorbidities will expand treatment options and allow preferential prescribing among HIV patients who closely adhere to therpay. Commercial opportunity in the HIV market will be driven by a large and aging prevalent viremic patient population whose needs will shift to their comorbidities as their HIV infections become well managed.
QUESTIONS ANSWERED
- What is the current market landscape for the treatment of HIV? How will emerging therapies like Biktarvy compete with entrenched brands like ViiV’s Triumeq?
- How will changing prevalence, diagnosis, and drug-treatment rates for HIV affect overall market growth? What are the healthcare policies that will influence drug-treatment rates, and how much of an impact will these strategies have?
- What emerging therapies and/or interventions have the potential to offer a “functional cure” for HIV infection?
- What are the most-promising agents in the late-stage pipeline, and how will they be differentiated from current therapies?
PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
Disease Landscape & Forecast: Comprehensive market intelligence providing world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.
RELEASE DATE
August 2018
GEOGRAPHIES
United States, EU5, Japan
PRIMARY RESEARCH:
- 19 country-specific interviews with infectious disease experts.
- Supported by survey data collected for this report and other DRG research.
EPIDEMIOLOGY:
Total seroprevalent cases of HIV, diagnosed incident and drug-treated cases by country as well as the HIVPrEP-indicated population.
FORECAST
Ten-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key HIV therapies through 2027, segmented by brands/generics.
EMERGING THERAPIES
Phase III/PR: 7 drugs; Phase II: 5 drugs. Coverage of select preclinical and Phase I products.
Table of contents
- Human Immunodeficiency Virus - Landscape & Forecast - Disease Landscape & Forecast
- Key Updates
- October 2018
- August 2018
- June 2018
- March 2018
- Market Outlook
- Key Findings
- Market Overview
- Market Share of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Classes in 2017
- Market Share of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Drug Classes in 2027
- Human Immunodeficiency Virus SWOT Analysis
- Market Drivers and Constraints
- What Factors Are Constraining the Market for Human Immunodeficiency Virus?
- Key Market Events for Human Immunodeficiency Virus: 2017-2027
- Major-Market Brand and Generic Sales in Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Brand and Generic Patient Share in Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Drug-Class-Specific Trends
- Major-Market Sales of Single-Tablet Regimens for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Single-Tablet Regimens for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Sales of Long-Acting Regimens for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Long-Acting Regimens for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Sales of Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Sales of Integrase Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Integrase Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Sales of Protease Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Protease Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Sales of Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Sales of Other Antiretroviral Agents for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Major-Market Patient Shares of Other Antiretrovirals for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, 2017-2027
- Key Findings
- Forecast
- Market Forecast Assumptions
- Market Forecast Dashboard
- Sales of Drugs to Treat Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the Major Pharmaceutical Markets: 2017-2027
- Etiology and Pathophysiology
- Disease Overview
- Human Immunodeficiency Virus Disease Process
- AIDS-Defining Conditions According to the 1993 U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention AIDS Case Definition
- Viral Structure
- Human Immunodeficiency Virus Structure
- Viral Life Cycle
- The Life Cycle of HIV-1
- Classification of Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Co-Receptor Tropism
- Key Pathways and Drug Targets
- Key Steps and Drug Targets in the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Life Cycle
- Disease Overview
- Epidemiology Overview
- Introduction
- Key Findings
- Epidemiology Populations
- Disease Definition
- Methods
- Sources Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection
- Number of Diagnosed Incident Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the Major Pharmaceutical Markets: 2017-2027
- Disease Definition
- Methods
- Sources Used for Total Prevalent Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection
- Number of Total Prevalent Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the Major Pharmaceutical Markets (Thousands): 2017-2027
- Disease Definition
- Methods
- Sources Used for the PrEP-Eligible Population
- Number of PrEP-Eligible Persons in the Major Pharmaceutical Markets (Thousands): 2017-2027
- Number of Total, Diagnosed, and Drug-Treated Prevalent Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in the Major Pharmaceutical Markets, 2017-2027 (thousands)
- Introduction
- Current Treatment Overview
- Key Findings
- Treatment Goals
- Key End Points Used in Clinical Trials for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Key Current Therapies
- Overview
- Mechanism of Action of Key Current Drug Classes Used for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Current Treatments Used for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Market Events Impacting the Use of Key Current Therapies in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Advantages and Disadvantages of NRTIs
- Advantages and Disadvantages of NNRTIs
- Expert Insight: NNRTIs
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Protease Inhibitors
- Expert Insight: Protease Inhibitors
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Integrase Inhibitors
- Expert Insight: Integrase Inhibitors
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Single-Tablet Regimens
- Expert Insight: Single-Tablet Regimens
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Pharmacokinetic Enhancers
- Expert Insight: Pharmacokinetic Enhancers
- Monoclonal Antibodies
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Monoclonal Antibodies
- Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Therapies
- Expert Insight: Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
- Medical Practice
- Treatment Guidelines
- Country-Specific Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment Guidelines
- Factors Influencing Drug Selection in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Treatment Decision Tree for HIV: United States
- Treatment Decision Tree for HIV: Europe
- Treatment Decision Tree for HIV: Japan
- Key Findings
- Unmet Need Overview
- Current and Future Attainment of Unmet Needs in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Top Unmet Needs in Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Current and Future Attainment
- Expert Insight: Unmet Need in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Emerging Therapies Overview
- Key Findings
- Pipeline Trends for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Key Emerging Therapies
- Notable Developments Among Key Emerging Therapies for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Key Therapies in Development for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Estimated Launch Dates of Key Emerging Therapies for the Treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Dolutegravir/Lamivudine Profile
- Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Dolutegravir/Lamivudine
- Expert Insight: Dolutegravir/Lamivudine
- Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Dolutegravir/Lamivudine in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Cabotegravir/Rilpivirine Profile
- Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Cabotegravir/Rilpivirine
- Expert Insight: Cabotegravir/Rilpivirine
- Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Cabotegravir/Rilpivirine in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Fostemsavir
- Fostemsavir Profile
- Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for Fostemsavir
- Expert Insight: Fostemsavir
- Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of Fostemsavir in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- PRO-140 Profile
- Analysis of the Clinical Development Program for PRO-140
- Expectations for Launch and Sales Opportunity of PRO-140 in Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Early-Phase Pipeline Analysis
- Notable Developments in the Early-Phase Pipeline for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Select Phase II Compounds in Development for Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Key Findings
- Access and Reimbursement Overview
- Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
- Key Market Access Considerations in Human Immunodeficiency Virus: United States
- General Reimbursement Environment: United States
- Key Market Access Considerations in Human Immunodeficiency Virus: EU5
- General Reimbursement Environment: EU5
- Key Market Access Considerations in Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Japan
- General Reimbursement Environment: Japan
- Looking for More?
- Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
- Appendix
- Key Abbreviations Related to Human Immunodeficiency Virus
- Brands, Marketers, and Generic Availability of Current Therapies Used for Human Immunodeficiency Virus by Market
- Human Immunodeficiency Virus Bibliography
- Supplemental Epidemiology Bibliography
- Key Updates
Steven Trueman, Ph.D., is a principal analyst in the Infectious, Niche, and Rare Diseases team at DRG, part of Clarivate. Since 2015, he has specialized in both product development and the production of high-value market analysis reports, forecasts, and custom client decision and strategy solutions. His expertise spans numerous therapy areas, including antiviral indications, niche and rare markets, and oncology indications for all major pharmaceutical markets, including China. Prior to joining DRG, he received his doctorate in biomedical sciences from the University of Massachusetts Medical School and his B.S. in biochemistry from Worcester Polytechnic Institute.
Sunali Goonesekera, S.M., is a senior epidemiologist at Clarivate. Previously, Ms. Goonesekera conducted epidemiological research on racial/ethnic disparities in metabolic diseases at the New England Research Institute and lead-authored two manuscripts. She has contributed to multiple publications in peer-reviewed journals in epidemiology and the biological sciences. She holds a master’s degree in epidemiology from the Harvard School of Public Health and a B.A. in biology (Honors) from Dartmouth College.