The treatment of breast cancer has a rich and diverse product pipeline and continues to be one of the most lucrative and active areas of research in oncology. However, the barriers to entry are high, owing to the well-established and effective therapies already available. Treatment is based on hormone receptor and HER2 expression, and successful therapies are often tailored to specific subpopulations. Substantial unmet need remains in the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer, for which no targeted therapy is approved.
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 19 country-specific interviews with experts.
Epidemiology: Incidence of stages I, IIa, IIb, IIIa, IIIb, IIIc, and IV breast cancer; incidence of hormonal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of nonhormonal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of HER2-positive breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of triple-negative breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of premenopausal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis; incidence of postmenopausal breast cancer by stage at diagnosis.
Population segments in market forecast: Adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR+/HER2- premenopausal, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR+/HER2+ postmenopausal, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR+/HER2+ premenopausal, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR-/HER2+, adjuvant and neoadjuvant HR-/HER2- (triple-negative), first-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, second-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, third-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, fourth-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, fifth-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, sixth-line metastatic HR+/HER2-, first-line metastatic HER2+ (HR+ and HR-), second-line metastatic HER2+ (HR+ and HR-), third- and subsequent-line metastatic HER2+ (HR+ and HR-), first-line metastatic HR-/HER2- (triple-negative), second-line metastatic HR-/HER2- (triple-negative), third- and subsequent-line metastatic HR-/HER2- (triple-negative).
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 44 drugs; Phase III: 20 drugs; registered: 27 drugs.
Market forecast features: Using a proprietary patient-flow model incorporating mortality, we forecast drug-treatable population sizes and drug sales for all patient segments annually through 2025.
Alternative market scenarios: (1) Ibrance is approved for HR-positive/HER2-negative adjuvant breast cancer.