Obesity is a significant public health concern in the G7 countries and is growing as an epidemic. The body of evidence highlighting the physical and economic impact of obesity on society is steadily increasing. Despite the disease’s prevalence, few drug treatments are available, especially in Europe and Japan. Compounding this problem is that available treatments have poor risk-benefit profiles and are expensive. In addition, few novel agents are in development for obesity. Consequently, there is huge market opportunity for an antiobesity drug that elicits sustained weight loss and is safe, well tolerated, and affordable. However, given the prevalence of obesity, even if such an agent is developed and approved, payers will likely need to restrict its access to limit the impact on finite healthcare budgets.
Questions answered:
Which metabolic and central pathways have high potential as drug targets?
What is the prevalence of obesity in the major pharmaceutical markets under study?
How is obesity currently treated? What do experts think about Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Saxenda as treatments for obese / overweight patients?
What is the current level of unmet need according to obesity experts? How will this need be addressed during the 2021-2031 forecast period?
What is the commercial potential of emerging therapies? How do leaders in the field of obesity treatment rate these drug candidates?
How will the obesity therapy market evolve over the next 10 years?
CONTENT HIGHLIGHTS
Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.
Primary research: 20 country-specific interviews with thought-leading endocrinologists. Supported by survey data collected for this and other Clarivate research.
Epidemiology: Prevalence of obesity and drug-treatable overweight by country, including diagnosed and drug-treated populations.
Emerging therapies: Coverage of select emerging therapies from preclinical to preregistration stages.
Market forecast features: 10-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key obesity therapies through 2031, segmented by brands / generics and epidemiological subpopulations.
PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.
SOLUTION ENHANCEMENT
Disease Landscape & Forecast will feature continual updates in 2022 to provide timely insights and analyses as meaningful indication-specific news and events unfold. Additionally, Disease Landscape & Forecast introduces a new Drug Pipeline chapter with real-time, global pipeline intelligence content directly from Cortellis. This chapter is updated daily and features interactive figures that can be easily downloaded for detailed analysis or presentations.
Market share of drug classes for obesity / overweight: 2021
Market share of drug classes for obesity / overweight: 2031
Obesity / overweight SWOT analysis
Market drivers and constraints
What factors are driving the market for obesity / overweight?
What factors are constraining the market for obesity / overweight?
Patient share by drug class for obesity in the major markets: 2021-2031
Total obesity sales by drug class in the major markets: 2021-2031
Sales by obese and drug-eligible overweight subpopulations in the major markets: 2021-2031
Drug-class-specific trends
Patient share of Saxenda and Wegovy in the United States: 2021-2031
Total sales of Saxenda and Wegovy for obesity in the United States: 2021-2031
Patient share of Saxenda and Wegovy in the major European markets: 2021-2031
Total sales of Saxenda and Wegovy for obesity in the major European markets: 2021-2031
Patient share of Wegovy for obesity in Japan: 2021-2031
Total sales of Wegovy for obesity in Japan: 2021-2031
Patient share of tirzepatide in the United States: 2021-2031
Total sales of tirzepatide in the United States: 2021-2031
Patient share of tirzepatide in the major European markets: 2021-2031
Total sales of tirzepatide in the major European markets: 2021-2031
Patient share of tirzepatide in Japan: 2021-2031
Total sales of tirzepatide in Japan: 2021-2031
Amylin analogue / GLP-1 receptor agonist FDCs
Patient share of CagriSema in the United States: 2021-2031
Total sales of CagriSema in the United States: 2021-2031
Patient share of Qsymia and Contrave / Mysimba in the United States: 2021-2031
Total sales of Qsymia and Contrave / Mysimba in the United States: 2021-2031
Patient share of Contrave / Mysimba in the major European markets: 2021-2031
Total sales of Contrave / Mysimba in the major European markets: 2021-2031
Patient share of off-label prescription drugs for obesity in the United States: 2021-2031
Sales of off-label prescription drugs for obesity in the United States: 2021-2031
Patient share of off-label prescription drugs for obesity in Europe: 2021-2031
Sales of off-label prescription drugs for obesity in Europe: 2021-2031
Patient share of off-label prescription drugs for obesity in Japan: 2021-2031
Sales of off-label prescription drugs for obesity in Japan: 2021-2031
Forecast
Market forecast assumptions - obesity (2021-2031) - December 2022
Market forecast dashboard - obesity (2021-2031) - December 2022
Etiology and pathophysiology
Disease overview
Etiology
Pathophysiology
Natural history
Major complications related to obesity
Key pathways and drug targets
Drug targets in obesity: energy storage
Drug targets in obesity: energy expenditure
Drug targets in obesity: gastrointestinal system
Neural and hormonal mediators of hunger and satiety
Drug targets in obesity: central nervous system
Hypothalamic structures of the brain involved in food intake regulation
Epidemiology
Key findings
Epidemiology populations
Disease definition, methods, and sources used
Total prevalent cases of obesity: 2021-2031 (millions)
Total prevalent cases of overweight: 2021-2031 (millions)
Disease definition, methods, and sources used
Total prevalent cases of obesity by disease severity: 2021-2031 (millions)
Disease definition, methods, and sources used
Total prevalent cases of drug-eligible overweight: 2021-2031 (millions)
Diagnosed prevalent cases
Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity in the mature markets (thousands): 2021-2031
Diagnosed prevalent cases of drug-eligible overweight in the mature markets (thousands): 2021-2031
Drug-treated cases of obesity and overweight
Drug-treated cases of obesity in the mature markets (thousands): 2021-2031
Drug-treated cases of drug-eligible overweight in the mature markets (thousands): 2021-2031
Current treatment
Key findings
Treatment goals
Key endpoints used in clinical trials for obesity
Key current therapies
Overview
Mechanism of action of key current drug classes used for obesity
Current treatments used for obesity
Market events impacting the use of key current therapies for obesity
Wegovy
Advantages and disadvantages of Wegovy
Expert insight: Wegovy
Key results from select clinical trials investigating Wegovy for the treatment of obesity
Advantages and disadvantages of Saxenda
Expert insight: Saxenda
Advantages and disadvantages of Qsymia
Expert insight: Qsymia
Advantages and disadvantages of Contrave / Mysimba
Expert insight: Contrave / Mysimba
Advantages and disadvantages of Xenical
Expert insight: Xenical
Advantages and disadvantages of phentermine
Expert insight: phentermine
Advantages and disadvantages of Mazindol
Expert insight: Mazindol
Advantages and disadvantages of off-label prescription drugs
Expert insight: off-label prescription drugs
Medical practice
Overview
Factors influencing drug selection in obesity
Treatment decision tree for obesity: United States
Treatment decision tree for obesity: Europe
Treatment decision tree for obesity: Japan
Unmet need overview
Current and future attainment of unmet needs in obesity / overweight
Top unmet needs in obesity: current and future attainment
Expert insight: unmet need in obesity / overweight
Drug pipeline
Pipeline
Regulatory Milestones
Indication Comparison
Emerging therapies
Key findings
Key emerging therapies
Key therapies in development for obesity
Estimated launch dates of key emerging therapies for the treatment of obesity
Tirzepatide profile
Analysis of the clinical development program for tirzepatide
Expert insight: tirzepatide
Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of tirzepatide in obesity
CagriSema profile
Analysis of the clinical development program for CagriSema
Expert insight: CagriSema
Early-phase pipeline analysis
Select compounds in early-phase development for obesity / overweight
Key discontinuations and failures in obesity / overweight
Key discontinuations and failures
Access & reimbursement overview
Region-specific reimbursement practices
Key market access considerations in obesity: United States
General reimbursement environment: United States
Key market access considerations in obesity: EU5
General reimbursement environment: EU5
Key market access considerations in obesity: Japan
General reimbursement environment: Japan
Appendix
Abbreviation
Obesity bibliography
Tej Pal, M.Pharm.
Tej Pal, M.Pharm., is a senior healthcare research & data analyst on the Cardiovascular, Metabolic, Renal, and Hematologic Diseases team at Clarivate. He has authored several reports focusing on metabolic and renal indications. Previously, he was an analyst at IQVIA and at Smart Analyst Inc., where he worked closely with top pharmaceutical companies on commercial and technical ad-hoc requests. During his tenure there, he delivered competitive landscape and market insight projects on various oncology indications. He holds a master’s degree in pharmacy with a specialization in pharmaceutical chemistry from the Delhi Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research in New Delhi, India.