Adagrasib is a long-awaited, targeted treatment of cancers with KRASG12C mutation and will likely be the first such treatment option in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) with this mutation, who historically have had very few treatment options. Despite being second to market for patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), the great unmet clinical need for effective therapies for this biomarker-defined population make the clinical success of adagrasib very likely.
The common KRAS oncoprotein variants are traditionally considered intractable drug targets. The forecasted entry of a KRAS inhibitor for mutation-positive solid tumors (first entry: CRC; second entry: NSCLC) is monumental.
November 2021:
An NDA submission with the U.S. FDA began in this patient group based on data from the KRYSTAL-1 study
Expected launch:
2022: United States
2023: Europe and Japan
CRC
Expected launch:
2024: United States, Europe and Japan
Patents estimated to expire beginning in 2038
How will adagrasib impact the market for NSCLC and CRC?
NSCLC
CRC
What gaps in treatment does adagrasib fill?
Emerging therapies have struggled to target KRAS-mutant cancers, current therapies are not wholly effective, and there are few options for patients who progress after previous therapy. Not only is adagrasib expected to provide better efficacy than the current standard of care but it is also helping to set the scene for other, similar therapies to become available and provide greater choice for providers and patients.
What hurdles might it need to overcome to reach blockbuster status?
For NSCLC, Amgen’s LUMAKRAS has the advantage of being earlier to market for a relatively small patient population, in addition to its once-daily administration compared with twice-daily for adagrasib. Additional study results will be necessary to determine if the hinted-at superior efficacy and safety of adagrasib will be realized, which could influence its uptake. For CRC, an even smaller patient population could limit its overall sales potential.
– Source: Cortellis Competitive Intelligence, Drug Timeline & Success Rate prediction current as of December 15, 2021
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