Alzheimer’s Disease | Pharmacor | G7 | 2015

Last Updated 28 September 2015
The market for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pharmacotherapies offers enormous commercial opportunity driven by considerable unmet need and looming societal burden. The AD population is poised to grow rapidly over the next ten years as the baby boomer generation ages, simultaneously increasing the treatable patient pool and straining healthcare resources. Moreover, approved treatments today comprise a handful of symptomatic therapies that offer only modest efficacy of limited duration. Two critical unmet needs in AD treatment remain: the development of bona fide disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) that are capable of slowing disease progression, and the launch of improved symptomatic adjuncts, including those for behavioral deficits. Despite a perennially high rate of attrition, the late-stage pipeline in AD remains full and diverse, comprising a range of promising symptomatic and disease-modifying candidates. We forecast the launch of four potential DMTs targeting the amyloid cascade—Eli Lilly’s solanezumab, Roche/Chugai/MorphoSys’s gantenerumab, Biogen/Neurimmune’s aducanumab, and Merck’s verubecestat—which will dramatically expand the AD market, despite reaching relatively few patients. Additionally, we forecast the launch of a novel symptomatic alternative to enhance cognition, Lundbeck/Otsuka’s idalopirdine, and the launch of a novel behavioral therapy, Lundbeck/Otsuka’s brexpiprazole (Rexulti) for the treatment of AD associated agitation. However, owing to as-yet uncertain clinical benefits for any emerging candidates, and lingering questions about the clinical efficacy (and safety) of putative DMTs, we expect investigational products will only partially fulfill the need for therapeutic advances should they launch, leaving ample room for superior alternatives.