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Coronavirus COVID-19 Forecaster | Epidemiology | AM | 2020

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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Forecaster is a fully customizable SEIR(susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model that allows users to develop scenario-based global COVID-19 forecasts for up to two years from initial outbreak. Base assumptions used in this model have been tested and developed by DRG’s Epidemiology team using a semi-mechanistic methodology, running thousands of simulations with plausible parameter ranges set out by the current literature and benchmarked using daily reported COVID-19-related mortality data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) using goodness-of-fit analysis.

Forecasting COVID-19 is challenging for several reasons, including the uncertainty in effect size and duration of local nonpharmaceutical interventions and the timing and efficacy of different treatments entering the market. Therefore, DRG’s COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster is flexible by design. Each variable used in the model is fully adjustable, and the tool allows the addition of up to five interventions. The COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster reports the following metrics in a tabular form, as well as in a variety of data visualization graphics:

  • Total case estimates (everyone infected with the virus, including laboratory-confirmed and -unconfirmed cases).
  • Mortality associated with COVID-19.
  • Adjusted infection fatality rate to allow cross-country comparisons.
  • Incident and cumulative hospitalizations.
  • Incident and cumulative intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.
  • Available in both total and age-stratified formats.

The COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster allows users to export diagrams and charts as image files that can easily be incorporated into internal or investor/shareholder material.

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