Global Consequences of Smoking Cessation: NSCLC Incidence over the Next Two Decades
The strongest risk factor that drives change in the incidence of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the historical prevalence of smoking. The long lag between the initiation of tobacco use and the development of lung cancer is an indicator that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg regarding long-term effects of the smoking epidemic. This finding is compounded by the effect of population aging and growth. Owing to the shift in disease risk, we do not use historical NSCLC incidence to predict future incidence of NSCLC. Changing patterns in risk, based on evolving smoking patterns, following increased awareness and investment in tobacco control strategies need to be incorporated in forecasting NSCLC incidence.
