Disease Landscape and Forecast (Legacy Pharmacor) – Hepatitis C Virus | 2017

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy market has been marked by tremendous growth, and the treatment landscape has undergone a rapid evolution with the launch of novel direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and DAA combinations, including simeprevir (Janssen’s Olysio, Medivir’s Sovriad), sofosbuvir (Gilead’s Sovaldi), sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (Gilead’s Harvoni), ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir plus dasabuvir (AbbVie’s Viekira Pak), daclatasvir (Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Daklinza), Zepatier (Merck’s elbasvir/grazoprevir), and Epclusa (Gilead’s sofosbuvir/velpatasvir). The forthcoming rise in pangenetic regimens (i.e., Epclusa, AbbVie’s glecaprevir/pibrentasvir, and Gilead’s sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir) with potentially shorter treatment durations will not only expand treatment options for HCV patients, including difficult-to-treat patients (e.g., DAA treatment failures), but will shift the treatment paradigm once again, triggering a departure in genotype-specific prescribing, which has traditionally been the cornerstone of HCV treatment. In this post-DAA era, commercial opportunity in this therapy market will continue to be driven by a large prevalent viremic population and a relaxation in access restrictions that have limited the uptake of highly efficacious but costly DAA-based treatment options in cost-sensitive markets. However, as increasing competition continues to reduce the cost of treatment, the overall value of the therapy market will gradually decline.

Questions Answered:

How large is the treatable HCV population, and how will diagnosis/drug-treatment rates change over time?

What is the current state of treatment for chronic HCV infection? Which are the most important drugs and why? What are interviewed experts’ insights on current treatment options? What clinical needs remain untapped?

What pipeline products are most promising, and what sales/uptake could they secure in HCV markets? What therapies of note are progressing in earlier phases?

What are the drivers and constraints in the HCV therapy market, and how will the market evolve over the forecast period?

Scope:

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.

Primary research: 22 country-specific interviews with thought leaders in HCV treatment.

Epidemiology: Seroprevalence of HCV, prevalence of HCV viremia, and incidence of HCV viremia.

Population segments in market forecast: Noncirrhotic genotypes 1, 4, 5, and 6; noncirrhotic genotype 2; noncirrhotic genotype 3; cirrhotic genotypes 1, 4, 5, and 6; cirrhotic genotype 2; cirrhotic genotype 3.

Emerging therapies and current IFN-free therapies: Phase II: 2 drugs; preregistration: 1 drugs; registered: 11 drugs.