9月25日，科睿唯安公佈了2025年度引文桂冠獎名單，美國斯丹福大學經濟學系 William Eberl 經濟學教授 Nicholas Bloom，因在「分析經濟與政治不確定性對投資、就業與增長的影響」研究領域的突出貢獻，獲得2025年度 經濟學 領域引文桂冠獎。
Nicholas Bloom 教授/圖源：Citation Laureates 官網
Nicholas Bloom，英國倫敦大學學院博士，導師為 John Van Reenen 教授與 Richard Blundell 教授。其博士論文題目為：The real options effects of uncertainty on investment and labour demand。該論文全文收錄在ProQuest全球博碩士論文資料庫（ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global，簡稱PQDT Global） 中。以下是論文的相關資訊，讀者可點擊連結查閱論文。
摘要
This thesis considers how uncertainty affects firms’ investment and employment behavioiur. Chapter 1 summarizes the thesis. Chapter 2 shows that, contrary to common beliefs, the real options effect of uncertainty plays no role in the long run rate of investment. Real options and irreversibility, however, are shown to play an important role in the short run dynamics of investment and labor demand. Specifically, they reduce the short run response of investment and hiring to current demand shocks, and lead to a lagged response to past demand shocks. Chapter 3 derives robust empirical predictions on the effects of uncertainty on investment dynamics. This approach is based on an explicit aggregation across plants and lines of capital to the firm level, and is compatible with a general class of production functions and demand processes. An investment model is estimated on a panel of UK firms and finds that, as predicted, uncertainty significantly reduces firms’ responsiveness to demand shocks. Chapters 4 extends these results by using a structural estimator of investment and labour demand at the plant level. Firms are modelled as operating a number of these separate production plants, which are subject to simulated plant level shocks and an observable firm level shock. Indirect inference is used to estimate the free parameters, and successfully match the time series and cross sectional behaviour of investment and hiring in a panel of US Compustat firms. Chapter 5 uses real options theory to model the investment in embodying newly patented products and processes. Patent data is collected for a panel of UK firms, and is shown to raises firms’ market values and productivity. The effect on productivity, however, is reduced by higher levels of uncertainty, in line with predictions from the real options framework that uncertainty reduces the rate of embodiment of new-technologies.
論文鏈接：
https://www.proquest.com/pqdtglobal/docview/1731947609
ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global 簡介
ProQuest 是美國國會圖書館指定的收藏全美國博碩士論文的機構。 ProQuest 全球博碩士論文全文資料庫（ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global，簡稱 PQDT Global），收錄來自全球60多個國家/地區4100餘所大學的超過400萬篇博碩士學位論文全文及600萬篇文摘索引記錄。 內容覆蓋科學、工程學、經濟與管理科學、健康與醫學、歷史學、人文及社會科學等領域。
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