Coronavirus COVID-19 – Epidemiology – Coronavirus COVID-19 Forecaster

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Forecaster is a fully customizable SEIR(susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) model that allows users to develop scenario-based global COVID-19 forecasts for up to two years from initial outbreak. Base assumptions used in this model have been tested and developed by DRG’s Epidemiology team using a semi-mechanistic methodology, running thousands of simulations with plausible parameter ranges set out by the current literature and benchmarked using daily reported COVID-19-related mortality data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) using goodness-of-fit analysis.

Forecasting COVID-19 is challenging for several reasons, including the uncertainty in effect size and duration of local nonpharmaceutical interventions and the timing and efficacy of different treatments entering the market. Therefore, DRG’s COVID19 Epidemiology Forecaster is flexible by design. Each variable used in the model is fully adjustable, and the tool allows the addition of up to five interventions. The COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster reports the following metrics in a tabular form, as well as in a variety of data visualization graphics:

  • Total case estimates (everyone infected with the virus, including laboratory-confirmed and -unconfirmed cases).
  • Mortality associated with COVID-19.
  • Adjusted infection fatality rate to allow cross-country comparisons.
  • Incident and cumulative hospitalizations.
  • Incident and cumulative intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.
  • Available in both total and age-stratified formats.

The COVID-19 Epidemiology Forecaster allows users to export diagrams and charts as image files that can easily be incorporated into internal or investor/shareholder material.