Prostate Cancer | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2016

The drug treatment of prostate cancer has evolved rapidly over the last few years—the metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) setting has become crowded and competitive following the launch of five efficacious therapies since 2010, and the hormonal agents Zytiga (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Biotech/Janssen-Cilag/AstraZeneca’s abiraterone) and Xtandi (Medivation/Astellas Pharma’s enzalutamide) compete fiercely in this setting. The prostate cancer drug development pipeline is dynamic, and agents in late-phase development span a wide range of drug classes. The expected launch of several emerging therapies for prostate cancer over 2015-2025 will heighten the competition, and it will be imperative for current and emerging therapies to differentiate and position themselves to maximize clinical and commercial success.

Questions Answered:

  • Zytiga was the sales leader for prostate cancer in 2015 across the seven major markets under study; however, it is due to face generics competition in 2016 in the United States. What are Zytiga’s advantages and disadvantages according to interviewed experts? Which therapies will pose the greatest threat to Zytiga? Which agent will become the sales leader for prostate cancer in 2025?
  • The prostate cancer pipeline is dynamic, and several agents are in Phase III development. What is interviewed experts’ opinion on agents in late-phase development? What are the emerging therapies to watch? Which emerging therapies will launch through 2025?
  • Drug developers are increasingly turning their attention toward earlier patient populations than the crowded mCRPC setting, including nonmetastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (nmCRPC) and the hormone-sensitive disease segment. Which agents hold most promise in these settings, according to interviewed experts? What factors will shape the nmCRPC and hormone-sensitive markets? What is the clinical and commercial outlook for current and emerging therapies targeting these untapped settings?


Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Primary research: 30 country-specific interviews with prostate cancer experts; physician surveys fielded to approximately 30 physicians (15 medical oncologists and 15 urologists) in the major markets.

Epidemiology: Diagnosed incidence of prostate cancer by risk for biochemical recurrence and TNM status. Clinical- and market-relevant drug-treatable populations.

Population segments in market forecast: Newly diagnosed low/intermediate risk (hormone-sensitive), newly diagnosed high/very high risk (hormone-sensitive), newly diagnosed metastatic (hormone-sensitive), biochemically recurrent (hormone-sensitive), nonmetastatic castrate-resistant, first-line metastatic castrate-resistant, second-line metastatic castrate-resistant, and third- and fourth-line metastatic castrate-resistant.

Emerging therapies: Phase I/II: 50 drugs; Phase III: 10 drugs.

Market forecast features: Using a proprietary patient-flow model, we forecast population sizes and drug sales for clinically and commercially relevant prostate cancer patient segments through 2025.

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