Type 2 Diabetes – Landscape & Forecast – Disease Landscape & Forecast
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The type 2 diabetes (T2D) therapy market will expand over the first half of the 2020-2030 forecast period. This increase will partly be fueled by a rich pipeline of novel agents, including emerging therapies that are expected to demonstrate superior dosing and efficacy over current therapies. Notable growth is expected for the sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors and the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists owing to their efficacy in glycemic control and weight loss and demonstration of cardiovascular (CV) benefits. However, increasing genericization will build market access pressures on the uptake of branded therapies, most notably from the arrival of generic DPP-IV inhibitors, SGLT-2 inhibitors, and GLP-1 receptor agonists.
QUESTIONS ANSWERED
- How will the release of Novo Nordisk’s Rybelsus, a novel oral GLP-1 receptor, affect the prescribing of injectable GLP-1 receptor agonists such as Eli Lilly’s Trulicity and Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Victoza?
- Will label expansions of the SGLT-2 inhibitors—AstraZeneca’s Farxiga and Johnson & Johnson’s Invokana—affect the uptake of Boehringer Ingelheim / Eli Lilly’s Jardiance?
- What do key opinion leaders think about emerging therapies such as Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, Novo Nordisk’s insulin icodec, Oramed Pharmaceuticals’ ORMD-0801, and Poxel imeglimin?
CONTENT HIGHLIGHTS
Geographies: United States, EU5, Japan.
Primary research: 19 country-specific interviews with thought-leading endocrinologists and diabetologists. Supported by survey data collected for this and other Clarivate research.
Epidemiology: prevalence of T2D by country with population-specific diagnosed and drug-treatment rates.
Forecast: 10-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key T2D therapies through 2030, segmented by brands / generics.
Emerging therapies: Phase III/PR: 8 drugs; coverage of select preclinical, Phase I, and Phase II products.
PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.
SOLUTION ENHANCEMENT
Disease Landscape & Forecast will feature continuous updates in 2021 to provide timely insights and analyses as meaningful indication-specific news and events unfold.
Table of contents
- Type 2 Diabetes - Landscape & Forecast - Disease Landscape & Forecast
- Key findings
- Type 2 Diabetes - Key Findings - November 2021
- Key updates
- Q3 2022
- September 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- Q2 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- Q1 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- Q4 2021
- December 2021
- November 2021
- Q3 2022
- Market outlook
- Market drivers and constraints
- What factors are driving the market for type 2 diabetes?
- What factors are constraining the market for type 2 diabetes?
- Drug-class-specific trends
- Annual Sales of DPP-IV Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of DPP-IV Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes in the United States: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of DPP-IV Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes in Europe: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of DPP-IV Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes in Japan: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales of SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes in the United States: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes in Europe: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes in Japan: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales and Patient Share of DPP-IV / SGLT-2 Inhibitors in Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in Type 2 Diabetes in the United States: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in Type 2 Diabetes in Europe: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in Type 2 Diabetes in Japan: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales and Patient Share of GLP-1/GIP Receptor Agonists in Type 2 Diabetes: 2019-2029
- Annual Sales of Long-Acting Insulin Analogues in Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of Long-Acting Insulin Analogues in Type 2 Diabetes in the G7: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales of Rapid-Acting Insulin Analogues in Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Patient Share of Rapid-Acting Insulin Analogues in Type 2 Diabetes in the G7: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales and Patient Share of Long-Acting Insulin/GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Fixed-Dose Combinations in Type 2 Diabetes in G7: 2020-2030
- Annual Sales and Patient Share of Oral Insulins in Type 2 Diabetes in G7: 2020-2030
- Market drivers and constraints
- Forecast
- Market Forecast Assumptions
- Market Forecast Dashboard
- Etiology and pathophysiology
- Epidemiology
- Introduction
- Key Findings
- Epidemiology Populations
- Disease Definition
- Methods
- Sources Used for Total Prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes
- Total Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes: 2021-2031 (thousands)
- Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes: 2021-2031(thousands)
- Drug-Treated Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes: 2020-2030
- Introduction
- Current treatment
- Key Findings
- Treatment goals
- Key endpoints used in clinical trials for type 2 diabetes
- Key current therapies
- Overview
- Mechanism of action of key current drug classes used for type 2 diabetes
- Current treatments used for type 2 diabetes
- Market events impacting the use of key current therapies in type 2 diabetes
- Advantages and disadvantages of sitagliptin
- Advantages and disadvantages of saxagliptin
- Advantages and disadvantages of vildagliptin
- Advantages and disadvantages of linagliptin
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating linagliptin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Advantages and disadvantages of alogliptin
- Expert insight: DPP-IV inhibitors
- Advantages and disadvantages of liraglutide
- Advantages and disadvantages of dulaglutide
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating dulaglutide for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Advantages and disadvantages of Semaglutide SC
- Key ongoing clinical trials of semaglutide SC in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Advantages and disadvantages of oral semaglutide
- Key ongoing clinical trials of oral semaglutide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Advantages and disadvantages of exenatide / exenatide LAR
- Advantages and disadvantages of lixisenatide
- Expert insight: GLP-1 receptor agonists
- Advantages and disadvantages of tirzepatide
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating tirzepatide for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expert insight: tirzepatide
- Advantages and disadvantages of dapagliflozin
- Advantages and disadvantages of canagliflozin
- Advantages and disadvantages of empagliflozin
- Advantages and disadvantages of ertugliflozin
- Expert insight: SGLT-2 inhibitors
- Advantages and disadvantages of metformin
- Expert insight: metformin
- Advantages and disadvantages of sulfonylureas
- Expert insight: sulfonylureas
- Advantages and disadvantages of thiazolidinediones
- Expert insight: thiazolidinediones
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin glargine
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin detemir
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin degludec
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin glargine U300
- Expert insight: long-acting insulins
- Advantages and disadvantages of short- and intermediate-acting insulins
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin lispro
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin lispro ultra-rapid
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin aspart
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin aspart ultra-rapid
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin glulisine
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin technosphere
- Expert insight: rapid-acting insulins
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin aspart / insulin degludec
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin degludec / liraglutide
- Advantages and disadvantages of insulin glargine / lixisenatide
- Expert insight: long-acting insulin / GLP-1 receptor agonist fixed-dose combinations
- Medical practice
- Overview
- Factors Influencing Drug Selection in Type 2 Diabetes
- Treatment decision tree for type 2 diabetes: United States
- Treatment decision tree for type 2 diabetes: Europe
- Treatment decision tree for type 2 diabetes: Japan
- Key Findings
- Unmet need overview
- Current and future attainment of unmet needs in type 2 diabetes
- Top unmet needs in type 2 diabetes: current and future attainment
- Drug pipeline
- Pipeline
- Regulatory Milestones
- Indication Comparison
- Emerging therapies
- Key findings
- Key emerging therapies
- Notable developments in the late-phase pipeline for type 2 diabetes
- Key therapies in development for type 2 diabetes
- Estimated launch dates of key emerging therapies for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating efpeglenatide for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Key ongoing clinical trials of efpeglenatide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for efpeglenatide
- Expert insight: efpeglenatide
- Key development milestones for efpeglenatide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of efpeglenatide in type 2 diabetes
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating sotagliflozin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for sotagliflozin
- Expert insight: sotagliflozin
- Key development milestones for sotagliflozin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of sotagliflozin in type 2 diabetes
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating bexagliflozin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for bexagliflozin
- Expert insight: bexagliflozin
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of bexagliflozin in type 2 diabetes
- Insulin icodec / semaglutide FDC
- Insulin icodec / semaglutide FDC profile
- Key ongoing clinical trials of insulin icodec / semaglutide in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for insulin icodec / semaglutide FDC
- Expert insight: insulin icodec / semaglutide FDC
- Key development milestones for insulin icodec / semaglutide FDC in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of insulin icodec / semaglutide FDC in type 2 diabetes
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating insulin icodec for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Key ongoing clinical trials of insulin icodec in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for insulin icodec
- Expert insight: insulin icodec
- Key development milestones for insulin icodec in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of insulin icodec in type 2 diabetes
- Basal insulin-Fc
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating basal insulin-Fc for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Key ongoing clinical trials of basal insulin-Fc in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for basal insulin-Fc
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of basal insulin-Fc in type 2 diabetes
- ORMD-0801 profile
- Key ongoing clinical trials of ORMD-0801 in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for ORMD-0801
- Expert insight: ORMD-0801
- Key development milestones for ORMD-0801 in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of ORMD-0801 in type 2 diabetes
- Key results from select clinical trials investigating imeglimin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Analysis of the clinical development program for imeglimin
- Expert insight: imeglimin
- Key development milestones for imeglimin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of imeglimin in type 2 diabetes
- Early-phase pipeline analysis
- Select compounds in Phase II and early-phase development for type 2 diabetes
- Key Discontinuations and Failures in Type 2 Diabetes
- Key findings
- Access & reimbursement overview
- Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
- Key market access considerations in type 2 diabetes: United States
- General reimbursement environment: United States
- Key market access considerations in type 2 diabetes: EU5
- General reimbursement environment: EU5
- Key market access considerations in type 2 diabetes: Japan
- General reimbursement environment: Japan
- Region-Specific Reimbursement Practices
- Appendix
- Type 2 Diabetes Bibliography
- Key findings
Shambhavi Shukla, M.Tech., is a senior analyst on the Cardiovascular, Metabolic, Renal, and Hematologic (CMRH) Disorders team at Clarivate. She has authored competitive landscape and market insight reports on type 1 and type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, and FSGS. Before joining Clarivate, Ms. Shukla was with Evalueserve, where she worked closely with top pharmaceutical companies, helping them with commercial and technical ad-hoc requests. She holds a master’s degree in biotechnology from Amity University in India.
Ansuman Swain, B.D.S., M.P.H., is an associate epidemiologist at Clarivate. As part of his M.P.H. curriculum, he worked as an intern at the National Health Mission in Odisha, India, where he observed the implementation of the RBSK program. Mr. Swain is a graduate in dentistry from KIIT University in Odisha and holds an M.P.H. degree from Manipal Academy of Higher Education in Karnataka, India, with a specialization in global health from Maastricht University in the Netherlands.