Type 2 Diabetes | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2016

The type 2 diabetes therapy market will rapidly expand over our 2015-2025 study period, fueled by the disease’s increasing prevalence and a high unmet need for drugs that can effectively control the disease in the long term. A rich pipeline of novel agents is expected to launch, promoting sustained market growth. However, these novel therapies predominantly represent later-to-market entrants of existing drug classes, or novel combination therapies of existing compounds. Among the drug classes expected to undergo the most rapid growth is the sodium glucose cotransporter (SGLT)-2 inhibitors, led by Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly’s empagliflozin (Jardiance), due to its demonstration of cardiovascular benefit in the EMPA-REG trial. The GLP-1 receptor agonists are also expected to demonstrate rapid growth due to their excellent HbA1c-lowering efficacy, potential for weight loss, and demonstrations of cardiovascular benefit for Novo Nordisk’s liraglutide (Victoza) and semaglutide. However, these and other emerging therapies will face major challenges, including reimbursement hurdles and an increasingly stringent regulatory environment. Nevertheless, as the patient population expands and significant needs remain, commercial opportunity will continue to grow.