Ulcerative Colitis – Landscape & Forecast – Disease Landscape & Forecast
We expect the ulcerative colitis (UC) market to grow steadily over the next decade, primarily driven by the increasing use of non-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) biologics (e.g., Takeda’s Entyvio, Janssen’s Stelara) earlier in the treatment algorithm. Additionally, the availability of Pfizer’s Xeljanz / Xeljanz XR has expanded physicians’ treatment armamentarium and intensified market competition. Furthermore, the recent approvals of BMS’s Zeposia, Gilead / Galapagos’s Jyseleca, and AbbVie’s Rinvoq, and the expected launch of several emerging therapies with novel mechanisms of action (MOAs) (e.g., Skyrizi, Tremfya, mirikizumab, ABX464) will drive market growth over the next decade. In addition to these factors, the continued generics erosion of conventional agents and the entry of and increased physician comfort with less expensive biosimilars will constrain the UC market and create hurdles that emerging therapies will need to overcome to secure uptake.
QUESTIONS ANSWERED
- What are the similarities and differences in how U.S., European, and Japanese gastroenterologists treat UC?
- How do gastroenterologists perceive biosimilar agents, and what has been/will be their impact on the UC market?
- What are key opinion leaders’ (KOLs’) insights into the current treatment options for TNF-refractory UC patients (e.g., Pfizer’s Xeljanz / Xeljanz XR, Takeda’s Entyvio, Janssen’s Stelara, BMS’s Zeposia, Gilead / Galapagos’s Jyseleca, AbbVie’s Rinvoq)? What factors drive their treatment decisions?
- What are KOLs’ perceptions of key emerging therapies (e.g., AbbVie’s Skyrizi, Janssen’s Tremfya, Eli Lilly’s mirikizumab, Abivax’s ABX464), and where do they see these agents fitting into the treatment algorithm?
CONTENT HIGHLIGHTS
Geographies: United States, EU5, Japan.
Primary research: 28 country-specific interviews with thought-leading gastroenterologists; supported by survey data collected for this and other Clarivate research.
Epidemiology: Diagnosed prevalence of UC by country, segmented by disease activity.
Forecast: Ten-year, annualized, drug-level sales and patient share of key UC therapies through 2031, segmented by brands / generics / biosimilars, and acute and maintenance settings.
Emerging therapies: Phase III/PR: ~7 drugs; coverage of select early-phase products.
PRODUCT DESCRIPTION
Disease Landscape & Forecast provides comprehensive market intelligence with world-class epidemiology, keen insight into current treatment paradigms, in-depth pipeline assessments, and drug forecasts supported by detailed primary and secondary research.
SOLUTION ENHANCEMENT
Disease Landscape & Forecast will feature continual updates in 2022 to provide timely insights and analyses as meaningful indication-specific news and events unfold.
Additionally, Disease Landscape & Forecast introduces a new Drug Pipeline chapter with real-time, global pipeline intelligence content directly from Cortellis. This chapter is updated daily and features interactive figures that can be easily downloaded for detailed analysis or presentations.
Table of contents
- Ulcerative Colitis - Landscape & Forecast - Disease Landscape & Forecast
- Key findings
- Key updates
- March 2023
- Q4 2022
- December 2022
- Q3 2022
- August 2022
- July 2022
- Q2 2022
- June 2022
- May 2022
- April 2022
- Q1 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- Market outlook
- Key findings
- Market share of drug classes for ulcerative colitis: 2021
- Market share of drug classes for ulcerative colitis: 2031
- Patient share of ulcerative colitis therapies in the acute setting, by drug class: 2021-2031
- Patient share of ulcerative colitis therapies in the maintenance setting, by drug class: 2021-2031
- Ulcerative colitis SWOT analysis
- Market drivers and constraints
- What factors are driving the market for ulcerative colitis?
- What factors are constraining the market for ulcerative colitis?
- Drug-class-specific trends
- Total sales and patient share of TNF-alpha inhibitors in ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Total sales and patient share of cell adhesion molecule inhibitors in ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Total sales and patient share of JAK inhibitors in ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Total sales and patient share of interleukin inhibitors in ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Total sales and patient share of S1P-R modulators in ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Total sales and patient share of other emerging targeted therapies in ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Key findings
- Forecast
- Market forecast assumptions
- Market forecast dashboard
- Etiology and pathophysiology
- Key findings
- Disease overview
- The four layers of the intestinal wall
- Anatomical distribution patterns of ulcerative colitis
- Typical symptoms of acute ulcerative colitis attacks by disease severity
- Etiology
- The immune response
- Select gene targets associated with ulcerative colitis
- Key immune and inflammatory responses in ulcerative colitis
- The Th2 response
- The inflammatory cascade
- Cytokines
- Lipid mediators
- Cell adhesion molecules
- Janus-activated kinase
- Sphingosine-1-phosphate receptors
- Select inflammatory mediators
- Key pathways and drug targets
- Select drug targets and mechanisms of action
- Key pathways and select drug targets in ulcerative colitis
- Key findings
- Epidemiology
- Key findings
- Epidemiology populations
- Disease definition
- Methods
- Sources used for diagnosed prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis
- Diagnosed prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Drug-treated prevalent cases of ulcerative colitis: 2021-2031
- Key findings
- Current treatment
- Key findings
- Treatment goals
- Key endpoints used in clinical trials for ulcerative colitis
- Key current therapies
- Overview
- Mechanism of action of key current drug classes used for ulcerative colitis
- Current treatments used for ulcerative colitis
- Market events impacting the use of key current therapies for ulcerative colitis
- Advantages and disadvantages of aminosalicylates
- Expert insight: aminosalicylates
- Advantages and disadvantages of corticosteroids
- Expert insight: corticosteroids
- Advantages and disadvantages of immunosuppressants
- Expert insight: immunosuppressants
- Advantages and disadvantages of Infliximab
- Advantages and disadvantages of adalimumab
- Advantages and disadvantages of Simponi
- Expert insight: TNF-alpha inhibitors
- Advantages and disadvantages of Entyvio
- Expert insight: Entyvio
- Ongoing clinical development
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Entyvio in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Advantages and disadvantages of Carogra
- Expert insight: Carogra
- Advantages and disadvantages of Xeljanz / Xeljanz XR
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Xeljanz / Xeljanz XR in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Advantages and disadvantages of Jyseleca
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Jyseleca in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Advantages and disadvantages of Rinvoq
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Rinvoq in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Expert insight: JAK inhibitors
- Advantages and disadvantages of Stelara
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Stelara in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Advantages and disadvantages of Zeposia
- Key ongoing clinical trials of Zeposia in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Medical practice
- Overview
- Factors influencing drug selection in ulcerative colitis
- Treatment decision tree for ulcerative colitis: United States
- Treatment decision tree for ulcerative colitis: Europe
- Treatment decision tree for ulcerative colitis: Japan
- Key findings
- Unmet need overview
- Current and future attainment of unmet needs in ulcerative colitis
- Top unmet needs in ulcerative colitis: current attainment and future attainment
- Expert insight: unmet need in ulcerative colitis
- Drug pipeline
- Pipeline
- Regulatory Milestones
- Indication Comparison
- Emerging therapies
- Key findings
- Key emerging therapies
- Key therapies in development for ulcerative colitis
- Estimated launch dates of key emerging therapies for the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Ivarmacitinib profile
- Analysis of the clinical development program for ivarmacitinib
- Expert insight: ivarmacitinib
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of ivarmacitinib in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Etrasimod profile
- Analysis of the clinical development program for etrasimod
- Expert insight: etrasimod
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of etrasimod in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Mirikizumab profile
- Analysis of the clinical development program for mirikizumab
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of mirikizumab in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Guselkumab profile
- Analysis of clinical development program for guselkumab
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of guselkumab in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Risankizumab profile
- Analysis of the clinical development program for risankizumab
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of risankizumab in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Expert insight: IL-23 inhibitors
- ABX464 profile
- Analysis of the clinical development program for ABX464
- Expert insight: ABX464
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of ABX464 in the treatment of ulcerative colitis
- Cobitolimod profile
- Analysis of the clinical development program for cobitolimod
- Expert insight: cobitolimod
- Expectations for launch and sales opportunity of cobitolimod in ulcerative colitis
- Early-phase pipeline analysis
- Select compounds in Phase II development for ulcerative colitis
- Key discontinuations and failures in ulcerative colitis
- Key findings
- Access & reimbursement overview
- Region-specific reimbursement practices
- Key market access considerations in ulcerative colitis: United States
- General reimbursement environment: United States
- Key market access considerations in ulcerative colitis: EU5
- General reimbursement environment: EU5
- Key market access considerations in ulcerative colitis: Japan
- General reimbursement environment: Japan
- Region-specific reimbursement practices
- Appendix
- Key abbreviations related to ulcerative colitis
- Ulcerative colitis bibliography
- Key findings
Ritesh Gupta, Ph.D., Senior Healthcare Research & Data Analyst, Immune and Inflammation. Dr. Gupta’s focus is inflammatory bowel disease market. He has years of experience in competitive intelligence, scientific analysis, and market opportunity assessment and has worked in various therapeutic areas to provide strategic recommendations to pharmaceutical companies. He holds a Ph.D. in cell biology from the Max Delbrück Center for Molecular Medicine in Berlin.
Priya Dhadwal, B.D.S., M.P.H., is an associate epidemiologist at Clarivate. Previously, she worked with the National Aids Control Organisation in India as a research officer in HIV Sentinel Surveillance. She also worked in the healthcare financing division of the National Health Systems Resource Centre in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in New Delhi. She obtained her master’s degree in public health with a specialization in advanced epidemiology and biostatistics from the Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research in Chandigarh, India, and her bachelor’s degree in dental surgery from HP Government Dental College in Shimla, India.