Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2016

The large therapeutic market for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a disease that is closely associated with smoking, continues to expand and is expected to grow from approximately $15 billion in 2015 to nearly $20 billion by 2025. The prevalence of COPD increases as populations age, and this increase is coupled with a rising diagnosis rate as efforts to promote awareness of the disease continue and the use of spirometry to diagnose COPD becomes more widespread. The expanding COPD patient population has great unmet need because truly disease-modifying therapies are lacking. Currently, treatment is dominated by bronchodilators that help alleviate symptoms but do not reverse the progression of the disease. Polypharmacy is common, especially among the severe to very severe patient population, and therapies that offer incremental improvements over existing treatment will gain use because they alleviate some of the burden associated with complex regimens. The mild to moderate patient population, especially, will benefit from increased access to certain drugs, as several generic therapies are anticipated to launch in the coming years. Despite generic/branded-generic entry of several leading inhaled therapies, major-market COPD sales will grow steadily over our forecast period owing to the uptake of current and future fixed-dose combinations in both subpopulations, and an increasing drug-treated population.

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