Asthma | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2016

Owing to the large diagnosed prevalent population, high rates of drug treatment across patients of all disease severities, and high rates of polypharmacy—particularly among the moderate/severe population—the asthma market totaled nearly $17 billion in 2015 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets under study (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan). Despite a robust late-stage pipeline in asthma with substantial growth potential, generic and/or branded-generic erosion, increased product competition, entrenchment of available treatment options, and an increasingly difficult pricing and reimbursement environment will likely limit emerging agents’ sales potential in the asthma market. Nevertheless, the uptake of recently approved and emerging biologics targeting the severe, refractory asthma population over our forecast period will help to offset market constraints and counterbalance sales losses due to branded-generic and/or generic erosion of market-leading agents. Other emerging agents contributing, albeit less so, to the growth of the asthma market through 2025 include several agents in a novel class of long-acting beta2 agonist (LABA)/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs), an additional once-daily LABA/ICS FDC, and an oral CRTh2 antagonist.