Emerging Vaccines | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2017

In the context of growing healthcare costs, vaccines stand out as highly cost-effective products for improving public health. Furthermore, compared with pharmaceuticals, vaccines tend to carry a lower risk of generic competition and lower reimbursement hurdles. These attributes, when coupled with examples of blockbuster sales (Pfizer’s Prevnar 13 and Merck & ;s Gardasil 9), have sparked renewed interest from the pharmaceutical industry. In this report, we examine the development activity and commercial opportunity in several vaccine areas. Among the established markets, human papillomavirus ( HPV ), Streptococcus pneumoniae , Neisseria meningitis , seasonal influenza, and herpes zoster ( HZ ) will continue to represent high-value sectors through the next ten years. 

GlaxoSmithKline’s Shingrix has demonstrated impressive efficacy in preventing HZ . How will the launch of this product affect the HZ therapy market and the only currently marketed HZ vaccine, Zostavax? 
Two meningococcus B vaccines, Bexsero and Trumenba, are now marketed in the and Europe. How will inclusion in vaccination guidelines affect these brands’ uptake? 
While commercially successful, HPV vaccines were expected to experience greater uptake. How has the launch of the highly efficacious HPV vaccine Gardasil 9 affected vaccination rates? 

Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan. 
Primary research: Fifteen country-specific interviews with thought leaders/experts in vaccination. 
Epidemiology: Number of patients eligible for vaccination. 
Emerging therapies: Phase II: 10 vaccines; Phase III: 1 vaccine registered: 1 drugs. Coverage of 9 select preclinical and Phase I vaccines. 
Market forecast features: Patient-based market forecast extending through 2026, segmented by vaccine type. 
Key companies: Merck, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi 
Key drugs: Zostavax, Shingrix, Menveo, Menactra, Bexsero, Trumenba, Gardasil 9, Cervarix, Pneumovax 23, Prevnar 13, Fluzone, Flulaval, Fluarix