Human Immunodeficiency Virus | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2016

The HIV therapy market is very dynamic. Over the last decade, many effective antiretroviral (ARV) therapies have been introduced, prompting changes in treatment guidelines and clinical practices. In particular, highly effective and safe agents called integrase strand transfer inhibitors (InSTIs) recently launched for HIV and have quickly become the standard of care for treatment-naive patients, displacing the well-entrenched single-tablet regimen (STR) Atripla. Over the next ten years, the HIV market will grow as a result of continued uptake of premium-priced STRs, including ViiV’s Triumeq (dolutegravir/abacavir/lamivudine) and Gilead’s Stribild (elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [TDF]) and Genvoya (elvitegravir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide [TAF]), despite the current and future availability of generic formulations of individual regimen components. Furthermore, the suite of TAF-containing regimens will drive market growth as physicians turn to these regimens rather than the less-safe TDF-based therapies.Questions Answered: Over the next decade, STRs’ market share will grow as patients and physicians seek more-convenient regimens that encourage adherence. What is the current market landscape for the treatment of HIV? How will emerging therapies compete with well-entrenched brands? How will the simplification of treatment regimens (e.g., lower pill burden, less-frequent dosing) guide physicians’ prescribing for HIV patients? A growing body of evidence supports the treatment of HIV patients regardless of CD4 cell count. As such, updated treatment guidelines suggest a “treatment-at-diagnosis” approach. How will changing prevalence, diagnosis, and drug-treatment rates for HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) affect overall market growth? What are the healthcare policies that will influence drug-treatment rates, and how much of an impact will these strategies have? Because of the availability of highly effective ARV agents, interviewed thought leaders believe that agents with demonstrated long-term safety is a key unmet need in HIV treatment. What emerging therapies and/or interventions have the potential to offer a “functional cure” for HIV infection? What are the most-promising agents in the late-stage pipeline, and how will they be differentiated from current therapies?Scope:Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan.Primary research: 26 country-specific interviews with infectious disease experts.Epidemiology: Total prevalence of HIV and diagnosed incidence.Population segments in market forecast: Total HIV population.Emerging therapies: Phase II: 8 drugs; Phase III: 4 drugs; preregistration: 3 drugs; registered: 51 drugs.
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