Atrial Fibrillation | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2017

Atrial fibrillation is the most commonly encountered, sustained cardiac arrhythmia in clinical practice. The fixed-dose, nonmonitored NOACs for stroke prevention, which offer much-improved efficacy, safety, and/or convenience compared with VKAs, are driving growth in the AF market. The expected launch of tecarfarin and label expansion of existing current therapies will lead to further expansion of the AF market. However, the entry of generics for the NOACs, starting with dabigatran etexilate, is expected to limit expansion of the NOAC market and sales of the branded agents. Other constraints to the growth of the AF market are prescribing restrictions and reimbursement limitations in certain markets. The use of nonpharmacological treatment approaches for management of AF is another hindrance to the growth of the AF pharmaceutical market.

Questions Answered:

  • Thought leaders report that they are treating increasing numbers of patients with paroxysmal and persistent AF. How extensive is this trend; how will it affect drug sales over the study period? What other changes in medical practice are expected to impact future drug sales?
  • Oral anticoagulants, led by NOACs, hold a sizable share of the AF market. Which drug and regional segment is expected to dominate the global AF market? What will be the key drivers and deterrents for the AF market during the 2016-2026 forecast period? How large a role can emerging therapy tecarfarin play in this increasingly crowded landscape?
  • Generic versions of NOACs are anticipated to become available in the market starting in 2018. What will be the commercial impact of these lower-priced alternatives on the oral anticoagulant market?
  • Treatment options for underserved patient segments, such as those with renal insufficiency and mechanical heart valves, are in sight. How do thought leaders perceive the emerging therapies such as tecarfarin and bucindolol? How large is the commercial opportunity for these agents, and what competitors might they face down the road?
  • Currently available treatments for AF management are still considered to be of suboptimal efficacy. What are the major unmet needs that have been identified for the optimal management of AF patients? Which drugs in the emerging therapies pipeline are deemed most appropriate to fulfill these unmet needs by the thought leaders?


Markets covered: United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and Japan.

Primary research: 19 country-specific interviews with thought leaders.

Epidemiology: 12-month prevalent cases, incident cases; paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF patients.

Emerging therapies: Phase II: 4 drugs; Phase III: 5 drugs. Coverage of select preclinical and Phase I products.

Market forecast features: Patient-based market forecast extending through 2026, segmented by AF subpopulations (paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF).

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