Heart Failure | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2018

Heart failure (HF) can be categorized into acute or chronic, and we focus on both settings in this report. HF patients are subject to high rates of mortality and morbidity. While much progress has been made in the pharmacological management of HF, it is mainly in chronic HF (CHF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF); a significant unmet need remains for CHFwith preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). In addition, the treatment of acute HF (AHF) is dominated by older, generic products. We provide insights into the continued uptake of Entresto over the 2017-2027 forecast period, and its expected launch for HFpEF in 2020. We also examine the potential of several new therapies for CHF (Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly’s Jardiance, AstraZeneca’s Farxiga, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals/Sanofi’s sotagliflozin, Bayer/MSD’s vericiguat, and Amgen/Cytokinetics’s omecamtiv mecarbil), and assess how the AHF market will evolve given the lack of new drug launches.

Questions Answered

  • How large is the treatable HF population and how will diagnosis rates change over time?
  • What is the current state of treatment in HF? Which drugs are the most important and why? What clinical needs remain unfulfilled?
  • How is the use of Entresto going to evolve over the forecast period and will it reach blockbuster status?
  • How is the treatment of HFpEF going to evolve following the launches of the first evidence-based drugs for this population?
  • For which emerging therapies do thought leaders express the most enthusiasm? What level of market penetration can we expect of new therapies given the increasingly crowded and competitive landscape?