Schizophrenia | Disease Landscape and Forecast | G7 | 2016

Schizophrenia is an often disabling psychiatric disease whose core treatment consists of years up to a lifetime of treatment with antipsychotics (older typical antipsychotics or newer atypical antipsychotics). With at least ten different atypical antipsychotic molecules available in most major markets under study (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan), as well as typical antipsychotic options, new entrants must differentiate themselves to garner a foothold in the market. Sales of premium-priced emerging therapies and the continued uptake of long-acting depot formulations of atypical antipsychotics will not overcome sales of top-selling antipsychotics lost to generic erosion during our 2015-2025 study period. The schizophrenia market will experience incremental growth from approximately $5.5 billion in 2015 to over $6.0 billion in 2016, due to the launches and continued uptake of newer-to-market agents; however, major-market sales will decline to $5.4 billion through 2022 before leveling out at approximately $5.5 billion through the end of the forecast period, owing to the generic erosion of key players across the major markets. Key therapies that launched in the United States at the beginning of the forecast period and will be among those notably contributing to buoying the market include Otsuka/Lundbeck’s oral atypical antipsychotic brexpiprazole (Vraylar) and two depot formulations of existing antipsychotics, Janssen’s paliperidone palmitate three-month formulation (Invega Trinza/Trevicta) and and Alkerme’s aripiprazole lauroxil (Aristada). Emerging therapies in development include two new atypical antipsychotics, Allergan/Gedeon Richter/Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma’s cariprazine (Vraylar; already launched in the United States) and Alkermes’ ALKS-3831, and one new depot formulation of risperidone, Indivior’s RBP-7000.

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